Solo odds calculator
Your real chance of finding a whole Bitcoin block on your own. Plain truth first: solo mining is a lottery, and most solo miners never win.
Chance of finding a block at 1.2 TH/s
A block pays about $270,000 right now (≈3.141 BTC), all to the one miner who finds it.
The math: your share of the network's hashrate × 144 blocks a day. Assumes the network stays its current size. Odds, not a forecast. Not financial advice.
Odds for the solo miners we track
| Miner | Hashrate | Chance per year | Avg. wait |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcube | 777 GH/s | 1 in 26,000 | 26,000 years |
| Braiins Mini Miner | 1 TH/s | 1 in 20,000 | 20,000 years |
| Bitaxe Gamma | 1.2 TH/s | 1 in 17,000 | 17,000 years |
| Nerdaxe Gamma | 1.2 TH/s | 1 in 17,000 | 17,000 years |
| Heatbit Bitair | 1.2 TH/s | 1 in 17,000 | 17,000 years |
| Bitaxe Gamma Duo | 1.63 TH/s | 1 in 12,000 | 12,000 years |
| Bitaxe GT 801 | 2.15 TH/s | 1 in 9,400 | 9,400 years |
| Nerdaxe Gaia | 2.6 TH/s | 1 in 7,800 | 7,800 years |
| BitForge Nano | 2.6 TH/s | 1 in 7,800 | 7,800 years |
| Bitaxe Naja Duo | 4.4 TH/s | 1 in 4,600 | 4,600 years |
| NerdQaxe++ | 4.8 TH/s | 1 in 4,200 | 4,200 years |
| Avalon Nano 3S | 6 TH/s | 1 in 3,400 | 3,400 years |
| Hammer BC04 | 6 TH/s | 1 in 3,400 | 3,400 years |
| Bitaxe Gamma Hex | 8.4 TH/s | 1 in 2,400 | 2,400 years |
| NerdOCTaxe Gamma | 9.6 TH/s | 1 in 2,100 | 2,100 years |
| Hammer Thor P2 | 10 TH/s | 1 in 2,000 | 2,000 years |
| Hammer BC08 | 12 TH/s | 1 in 1,700 | 1,700 years |
| FutureBit Apollo III | 12 TH/s | 1 in 1,700 | 1,700 years |
Seller-stated hashrate. Prices for solo miners →
People do win, sometimes
The last solo block was found 10 days ago, on Oct 11, 2026 (pool: Braiins Solo). Solo pools found 30 blocks in the past 12 months, out of about 52,000.
Questions
What are my odds of solo mining a Bitcoin block?
Your share of the network's hashrate, times 144 blocks a day. With the network at about 1,060 EH/s, a Bitaxe Gamma (1.2 TH/s) has about a 1 in 17,000 chance a year. Type your own hashrate above.
Has anyone actually won a block with a small miner?
Yes, rarely. Solo pools found 30 blocks in the past 12 months, and some winners reported small miners, for example ≈995 GH/s on Jul 10, 2026. Thousands of people solo mine, so a few lucky ones win while almost everyone wins nothing.
If I keep mining longer, am I due for a win?
No. Every block is a fresh draw, and past attempts don't add up. The 5-year figure is the chance of at least one block in 5 years if the network stayed the same size. It usually grows, which makes the odds worse.
Is solo mining worth it?
Not as income. Think of it as a lottery ticket you pay for with electricity. A tiny miner costs a few dollars a month to run, and the most likely result is no block at all.
Why do the odds change?
They depend on the network's total hashrate, which changes daily as miners join or leave. Bitcoin's difficulty adjusts about every two weeks to keep blocks near 10 minutes apart.