Solo odds calculator
Your real chance of finding a whole Bitcoin block on your own. Plain truth first: solo mining is a lottery, and most solo miners never win.
Chance of finding a block at 1.2 TH/s
A block pays about $250,000 right now (≈3.142 BTC), all to the one miner who finds it.
The math: your share of the network's hashrate × 144 blocks a day. Assumes the network stays its current size. Odds, not a forecast. Not financial advice.
What does my best difficulty mean?
Your miner's dashboard shows a best difficulty (often "best diff"), like 240K or 4.29G. It's your miner's high score: the luckiest share it has found. To win a block, one share has to reach the network difficulty, which is 148T right now.
Your best: . A block needs 148T, .
At 1.2 TH/s, a share this high shows up on average.
A high best diff isn't progress toward a block. Every hash is a fresh try, so a lucky high score last week doesn't make the next block any closer.
How often a share this high turns up at 1.2 TH/s
| Best difficulty | Average wait |
|---|---|
| 1M | about 1 hour |
| 100M | about 4 days |
| 1G | about 41 days |
| 10G | about 14 months |
| 100G | about 11 years |
| 1T | about 110 years |
Average wait = difficulty × 2³² hashes ÷ your hashrate. Change the hashrate at the top to update it. K = thousand, M = million, G = billion, T = trillion.
Odds for the solo miners we track
| Miner | Hashrate | Chance per year | Avg. wait |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcube | 777 GH/s | 1 in 25,000 | 25,000 years |
| Braiins Mini Miner | 1 TH/s | 1 in 20,000 | 20,000 years |
| Bitaxe Touch | 1 TH/s | 1 in 20,000 | 20,000 years |
| Bitaxe Gamma | 1.2 TH/s | 1 in 16,000 | 16,000 years |
| Nerdaxe Gamma | 1.2 TH/s | 1 in 16,000 | 16,000 years |
| Heatbit Bitair | 1.2 TH/s | 1 in 16,000 | 16,000 years |
| Bitaxe Gamma Duo | 1.63 TH/s | 1 in 12,000 | 12,000 years |
| Bitaxe GT 801 | 2.15 TH/s | 1 in 9,100 | 9,100 years |
| Nerdaxe Gaia | 2.6 TH/s | 1 in 7,500 | 7,500 years |
| BitForge Nano | 2.6 TH/s | 1 in 7,500 | 7,500 years |
| Gaia Copper Pro | 3 TH/s | 1 in 6,500 | 6,500 years |
| Bitaxe 702 | 4.2 TH/s | 1 in 4,600 | 4,600 years |
| Bitaxe Naja Duo | 4.4 TH/s | 1 in 4,400 | 4,400 years |
| NerdQaxe++ | 4.8 TH/s | 1 in 4,100 | 4,100 years |
| Avalon Nano 3S | 6 TH/s | 1 in 3,300 | 3,300 years |
| Hammer BC04 | 6 TH/s | 1 in 3,300 | 3,300 years |
| NerdQX | 8.1 TH/s | 1 in 2,400 | 2,400 years |
| Bitaxe Gamma Hex | 8.4 TH/s | 1 in 2,300 | 2,300 years |
| NMQAxe++ Nexus | 8.5 TH/s | 1 in 2,300 | 2,300 years |
| NerdOCTaxe Gamma | 9.6 TH/s | 1 in 2,000 | 2,000 years |
| Hammer Thor P2 | 10 TH/s | 1 in 2,000 | 2,000 years |
| Hammer BC08 | 12 TH/s | 1 in 1,600 | 1,600 years |
| FutureBit Apollo III | 12 TH/s | 1 in 1,600 | 1,600 years |
Seller-stated hashrate. Prices for solo miners →
People do win, sometimes
The last solo block was found 8 days ago, on Oct 27, 2026 (pool: Solo CKPool). Solo pools found 31 blocks in the past 12 months, out of about 52,000.
Questions
What are my odds of solo mining a Bitcoin block?
Your share of the network's hashrate, times 144 blocks a day. With the network at about 1,026 EH/s, a Bitaxe Gamma (1.2 TH/s) has about a 1 in 16,000 chance a year. Type your own hashrate above.
Has anyone actually won a block with a small miner?
Yes, rarely. Solo pools found 31 blocks in the past 12 months, and some winners reported small miners, for example ≈995 GH/s on Jul 10, 2026. Thousands of people solo mine, so a few lucky ones win while almost everyone wins nothing.
If I keep mining longer, am I due for a win?
No. Every block is a fresh draw, and past attempts don't add up. The 5-year figure is the chance of at least one block in 5 years if the network stayed the same size. It usually grows, which makes the odds worse.
Is solo mining worth it?
Not as income. Think of it as a lottery ticket you pay for with electricity. A tiny miner costs a few dollars a month to run, and the most likely result is no block at all.
What is best difficulty (best diff)?
It's the highest-scoring share your miner has found since it started, shown on its dashboard (for example 240K or 4.29G). Think of it as a high score. A block needs a share at network difficulty, about 148T right now. A high best diff doesn't bring you closer: every hash is a fresh try.
Why do the odds change?
They depend on the network's total hashrate, which changes daily as miners join or leave. Bitcoin's difficulty adjusts about every two weeks to keep blocks near 10 minutes apart.